Reddit reviews Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway

The best piece of literature I read in recent years is a fanfic named Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. In chapter 24, Draco is reminiscing a memory from his childhood, when his father taught him about planning and the importance of not overthinking or overestimating one's intelligence.

> Father had once taken him to see a play called The Tragedy of Light, about this incredibly clever Slytherin named Light who'd set out to purify the world of evil using an ancient ring that could kill anyone whose name and face he knew, and who'd been opposed by another incredibly clever Slytherin, a villain named Lawliet, who'd worn a disguise to conceal his true face; and Draco had shouted and cheered at all the right parts, especially in the middle; and then the play had ended sadly and Draco had been hugely disappointed and Father had gently pointed out that the word 'Tragedy' was right there in the title.

> Afterward, Father had asked Draco if he understood why they had gone to see this play.

> Draco had said it was to teach him to be as cunning as Light and Lawliet when he grew up.

> Father had said that Draco couldn't possibly be more wrong, and pointed out that while Lawliet had cleverly concealed his face there had been no good reason for him to tell Light his name. Father had then gone on to demolish almost every part of the play, while Draco listened with his eyes growing wider and wider. And Father had finished by saying that plays like this were always unrealistic, because if the playwright had known what someone actually as smart as Light would actually do, the playwright would have tried to take over the world himself instead of just writing plays about it.

> That was when Father had told Draco about the Rule of Three, which was that any plot which required more than three different things to happen would never work in real life.

> Father had further explained that since only a fool would attempt a plot that was as complicated as possible, the real limit was two.

Plans who involve so many going according to plan, in order for us to return into power, are thus unrealistic. Instead of saying "We should get our policy shit together, then we'll present ourselves as the lesser evil and then Canadians will support us!" It's too many steps for a plan, and each of those steps includes many sub-steps. It's okay to cross bridges when you get there. Let's go one step at the time. Let's pick the right leader. Let's establish our policy agenda, our value - what we should stand for. Let's take a day at a time.

There's no secret recipe to power. Whatever you plan, your opponents may outplay you or you can screw up the execution at any point in time. By trying to see too far ahead, you risk on tripping on a pebble that was in your path. The future is complex. That's why experts suck at predicting it.

I'm a pretty tough critic on movies but one I really enjoyed is The Social Network. Now, a lot of it was overblown, exaggerated or questionable but they got one thing right: they portrayed how success is created correctly. Zuckerberg did not wake up one day and told himself "I am going to create the most successful social website of all times." First, he focused on Harvard. He made it exclusive. He found a way to get critical mass within Harvard, so the product would work successful from the get-go and slowly expended. Once he had conquered Harvard, he slowly added more campuses to his site until he reached critical mass on a very large scale. He never tried to bite more than he could chew. He took on a target he could reasonably reach and, once successful, moved on to a new one, accumulating victories until he dominated the market.

Simply put, what made The Social Network made a movie great for me is that it portrayed Zuckerberg as someone who understood that overnight success takes years. Major victories are composed of several smaller victories adding up to a triumph. The result may be greater than the sum of its parts, but it's still a sum.

When I year Liberals talking about how we only need to do X, Y and Z to return to power, I roll my eyes. I wish them luck - and I hope they're right, because winning is fun - but I laugh at their naiveté.

I prefer being pragmatic and taking things as they come.

Predicting the price of oil is futile. No one knows what the price will be... not even the CEO of Exxon. If you don't beleive me, read "Future babble"

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Babble-Expert-Predictions-Believe/dp/0771035195