Reddit reviews Sectarian Gulf: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab Spring That Wasn't (Stanford Briefs)

I was just there last weekend; while there, a demonstration broke out in a Shi'a neighborhood during a funeral procession that resulted in the police moving in to crack skulls. I saw what looked like a Cobra attack helicopter (not sure whose, Saudi or Bahrani) circling the neighborhood for most of the afternoon while police and army units sealed it with barricades, barb wire, and armored police vehicles. My Bahraini taxi driver (Bahrain has a high proportion of taxi drivers that are nationals and many are Shi'a) said they were trying to bring down the prime minister.

In a bar, a man, quite drunk, came up to me and said "Saudi military here, everything ok" before stumbling off for the bathroom.

With the exception of the traffic around the conflict zones, Bahrain has settled into a weird tit-for-tat cycle of protest, arrest, protest, arrest with hardly any political movement. The government has given up trying to stop demonstrations entirely and tolerates a few, but keeps strict control of where they can and can't go, never allowing them into Manama. I saw Bahrani police in the city center carrying assault rifles with noise suppressors during a trip in February 2013, though this time they just carried shotguns in the touristy old city.

Bahrani media reports these demonstrations, but slag them off as violent terrorists. (http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/ is a local rag)

Internet remains heavily censored; anything about news in Bahrain is subject to restrictions, so when I did an Internet search about demonstrations I got blocked.

U.S. Embassy has frequent updates about demonstrations at: http://bahrain.usembassy.gov/demonstration.html

According to the most recent one, a "violent opposition group has called for countrywide demonstrations on March 8th." Bahrain is not big; it took me two hours to explore the place by car. These clashes will be intense and crowded.

Additionally, on Monday, a bomb went off killing three police, including an Emirati officer. Bombs are becoming more frequent; a week prior, another police officer was killed in a similar incident. (http://www.thenational.ae/uae/government/bahraini-delegation-visits-family-of-uae-martyr)

In Saudi Arabia, in the Shi'a village of Qatif, a smoldering uprising has been occurring since 2012. Qatif and Bahrain are not far from one another. Here's some video of protests there, but this is from 2011. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soEOxKxeux4). Chants of "Death to King Abdullah" are not uncommon in these protests. Saudi Arabia is terrified a Shi'a revolution in Bahrain would spread to their Eastern Province, where a majority of their oil is produced and exported.

As a long time resident of the Persian Gulf, I can attest to how much these governments are trying to keep a lid on Bahrain for fear a revolution there would lead to an explosion across the Gulf. Repression is more frequent; torture, more common, even in relatively 'liberal' places like Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.

There are two great books on the region that document what's happening here (and what might happen), both written by long-time residents of the Gulf.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/After-Sheikhs-Coming-Collapse-Monarchies/dp/184904189X

http://www.amazon.com/Sectarian-Gulf-Bahrain-Arabia-Stanford/dp/0804785732

Spannend, weil Bahrain eine Schiiische Bevölkerungsmehrheit hat. Im Arabischen Frühling haben Schiiten und Sunniten gemeinsam gegen das Königshaus protestiert, aber die sind dann mit Saudi Arabischen Truppen dagegen vorgegangen und sind voll auf die sektiererische Schiene gegangen, haben Iran beeinflussung vorgeworfen und so weiter und so die Protestbewegung erfolgreich gespalten.



Gibt'n gutes Buch dazu: http://www.amazon.com/Sectarian-Gulf-Bahrain-Arabia-Stanford/dp/0804785732