Reddit reviews The Cast Iron Forest: A Natural and Cultural History of the North American Cross Timbers
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Came here to respond but it seems like y'all summed it up pretty well. I'm not sure that the relatively unstable climate had a direct impact on the settling of the area, though of course it did (and does) impact the natural resources of the Eastern/Lower Cross Timbers which then further defines it as a transitional ecology. That transitional nature then manifest itself in the cultural realm. I think the defining quality of the region is that it was a buffer in all respects.
At first glance the gun/horse dichotomy seems sound, and of course elements of it make sense, but I'd venture to say that there are many more variables at play. It's never as simple as we'd like it to be. As always, European trade and influence played a major role, and if you want to delve into that mess I recommend the work of F. Todd Smith.
Also, if you haven't already, definitely check out The Cast Iron Forest by Francaviglia. He's got some helpful sources for sure.