Reddit reviews The Hidden Game of Football

>the famous 4th Down study that introduced the idea of expected points

Not sure which study that is, but Expected Points were introduced no later than 1988, when The Hidden Game of Football was published.

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> https://www.reddit.com/r/WhereAllTheGoodMenAre/comments/awomug/the_maturity_myth/

This always makes me think of one of the most eye opening books on coaching football I have ever read: The Hidden Game of Football. The authors analyzed the statistics of more than four thousand professional football games and discovered some harsh truths. For example, going for it on 4th and 3 or less is worth 2.4 points statistically per game. Punting in the same situation is only worth 1.6 points. Therefore it makes sense to always go for it in that situation as the cost of not getting a first down is outweighed by the reward for doing so successfully.

Along with that, one statistic they presented was that coaches who bring newly drafted quarterbacks along slowly lose games and those quarterbacks are almost never worth the time and energy put into their development. New quarterbacks who will become franchise players (Brady, Montana, Marino, Elway, etc) Are generally on grass within five games of their entry to the league. If they are not capable of leading the team after that, they should be traded for draft picks.

To translate: maturity is a myth in professional football. Either a player can play from the outset or they can’t. Statistically speaking, if they can’t, cut them after five games and move on.

Same with women. If she can’t hit the seam and read the zone blitz by game five, cut her ass for draft picks.

Since this stat is total adjusted yards, the multipliers convert every non-yardage value into yards. So touchdowns = 20 yards, interceptions = -45 yards, fumbles = -50 yards, etc.

All those values have been around since The Hidden Game of Football in 1988. Pretty much every advanced stat today utilizes those same multiplier values.

If you like the writing style of Michael Lewis, you need to check out this book. Lewis wrote a fantastic book on a way to look at baseball that no fan had ever seen before. He based his hugely successful baseball book on The Hidden Game of Football, now out of print but available used.

For pure storytelling, you have to read "When Pride Still Mattered". This biography of Vince Lombardi is nothing short of a masterpiece, and it's no surprise. It's written by a Pulitzer Prize-winning author in a style very different from most bio works.

Sounds like you may enjoy the Hidden Game of Football and it may help you with your formula.

http://www.amazon.com/Hidden-Game-Football-Bob-Carroll/dp/0446514144