Top products from r/Augur

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

also by Tetlock

http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1449363140&sr=8-1&keywords=expert+political+judgment

Your rules link doesn't work.

Read: http://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Prediction-Philip-E-Tetlock/dp/0804136696/

if you want some helpful insight into making accurate forecasts

Let me explain it another way.

If you throw a dice, I'll give you a prediction of 83% chance that you won't roll 6.

If you roll 6, my prediction was still valid.

There is no "making up for it". You simply cannot tell by just one outcome.

I highly recommend this book to read up more on the subject:

https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718

Oh, and btw, so that nobody thinks I'm biased. I personally hate Augur :)